Bitcoin Dominance / BEARISH !
💥 BITCOIN DOMINANCE (BTC.D)
**Chart:** Weekly (1W)
This weekly BTC.D chart clearly outlines the **major cycles** that have shaped the market structure from 2017 to the present. Specifically, the **35% and 39%** levels are **critically important** for cycle bottoms.
🎯 History Repeats Itself: Major Cycle Peaks and Drops
The chart illustrates how Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has dropped from massive peaks, and how these drops have opened the door to **Altcoin Seasons**:
1. **2017 Mega Bull Peak (95% $\rightarrow$ 35%):**
* The first major rally pushed Dominance to **95%**. This was a period where the market was almost entirely focused on Bitcoin.
* As the market matured and Altcoins gained popularity, BTC.D rapidly fell to **35%**. This drop coincided with the largest **"Altcoin Season"** in history. The **35%** level is the **lowest support** point we have seen so far.
2. **2021 Bull Peak Recurrence (72% $\rightarrow$ 39%):**
* In the 2020-2021 rally, the Dominance peak remained around **72%**, indicating a more balanced market compared to 2017.
* The subsequent drop brought Dominance to the **39%** level, setting the stage for the big Altcoin rally of 2021. **39%** serves as the most important **secondary support/major bottom** since 2018.
📈 Current Situation: Searching for the New Cycle Peak
We can observe that since the beginning of 2023, we have been within a rising channel:
* **Ascending Trend Support:** Since early 2023, Dominance has been moving above the **ascending trend line** shown with the dashed line. This confirms that a major Altcoin rotation has not yet begun, and Bitcoin still dominates the market.
* **Recent Peak (66%):** In early 2025, Dominance made a local peak around **66%**. This peak is below the previous 72% peak, a trend that suggests Altcoins' share of the total market is **increasing** with each cycle.
* **In-Channel Correction:** Dominance has currently entered a corrective move from the **66%** peak and is pulling back towards the ascending trend line.
The large orange arrow on the chart points to a **strong expectation** for the upcoming period.
1. The Altcoin Season (Expected and Main Scenario):
The large orange arrows indicate that Dominance is expected to head towards the critical support levels with a **sharp drop**. If the current correction continues and Dominance breaks below the ascending trend line, the target will likely be:
First Critical Support:** The **39%** level. This level is the 2021-2022 cycle bottom and is -strong psychological support.
Ultimate Target (Mega Altcoin Season):** The **35%** level. If the market experiences an Altcoin frenzy similar to 2017, this lowest level may be retested or slightly undercut.
> **TECHNICAL CONCLUSION:** The **66%** peak could be the Dominance peak for the 2025/2026 cycle. A drop initiating from here will trigger a **historic Altcoin Season**.
🔥 FINAL VERDICT: The Cryptollica Move
This pullback in Dominance from **66%** suggests that **we must turn our attention to ALTCOINS**. Technically, the moment Dominance breaks this trend line, the **rotation of large capital from Bitcoin to Altcoins** will begin, and the targets in the **39% - 35%** range will be activated.
> **Trader's Note:** We are entering a period where it makes sense to **increase risk appetite** and **take positions in the Altcoin portfolio**. A Dominance drop will cause Altcoins to *surge* on their 
BTC $ pair, even if the BTC $ price remains stable.
That's an excellent move! Combining the bearish Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) scenario with the **ETH/BTC** parity chart allows us to understand the Altcoin Season expectation and where capital is most likely to flow.
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👑 The Role of the ETH/BTC Parity: The Leadership Indicator
Historically, when Bitcoin Dominance begins to fall, **Ethereum (ETH)** takes the lead in the market capital flow and pulls other Altcoins along with it.
1. Historical Correlation:
* **When BTC.D Peaks:** The ETH/BTC parity usually **bottoms out** or consolidates within a strong support zone. This is the moment when capital first flows into BTC and reaches saturation.
* **When BTC.D Starts to Drop:** The ETH/BTC parity begins a **powerful rally**. This is the official start of the Altcoin Season, where capital spreads from BTC, first to ETH, and then to other Altcoins.
2. Current ETH/BTC Expectation:
If BTC.D enters a **downtrend** from 66%, the expected move in the ETH/BTC parity is as follows:
Strong Bottom Confirmation:The parity must execute an **upward breakout** from a long-term consolidation or bottom level (likely the $0.05$ - $0.06$ BTC range).
Bullish Signal: A breakout of a significant resistance level in ETH/BTC (e.g., $0.07$ or $0.08$ BTC), simultaneously with the BTC.D trend line break, will be the **strongest technical signal that the Altcoin Season has officially begun.
Targets: The initial targets for the ETH/BTC parity could be the 2021 peaks at the $0.08$ - $0.09$ BTC levels, with the ultimate target being the 2017 peaks above $0.1$ BTC.
By combining these two charts, the strategy aiming for the **highest return** is:
| Condition per Chart | Market Impact | Action (Trader Decision) |
| **BTC.D** **Breaks Below** the Ascending Trend (pprox %55) | Capital outflow from Bitcoin begins. | Start **Main Altcoin Accumulation**. |
| **ETH/BTC** **Breaks Above** the Main Resistance ($\approx 0.07-0.08$ BTC) | Altcoin rally leader is confirmed. | Increase **ETH positions** and complete **other Altcoin purchases**. |
| **BTC.D** reaches %39 or %35 | The Altcoin market has reached saturation. | **Take Profit** and shift to an exit strategy. |
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**In Summary:** The drop in BTC.D confirms the existence of an **Altcoin Season**, while the **rise in the ETH/BTC parity** will confirm the strength of this season and **Ethereum's leadership**.
By following this dual signal, we can capture the flow of capital within the market in the most efficient way.
source
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/bi22RsJj-Bitcoin-Dominance-BEARISH/
source
https://www.cryptomadden.com/2025/12/bitcoin-dominance-bearish.html
